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Chart Showing U.S. Peak In Oil Production Predicted by Hubbert

The chart below shows various models of oil depletion. Most show  peak  oil occurring right about now or only a couple of years away. Oil depletion models are often adjusted as world demand rises and falls. Currently world demand is falling, altering some of the models. The big question is, how long will the economic downturn last and will India and China return to full throttle and their transition to a car culture after the downturn is over?

Various Oil Depletion Models

Why are the CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) models so optimistic? CERA is a for profit Boston based consulting company that sells advice to energy companies among others. What energy company would want to buy bad news?

I mean really, If CERA reported that peak oil were on the near horizon how much would energy companies pay for their studies and how would they be able to show these figures at shareholder meetings and still raise large sums of capital for expansion based on fifty year projections of increasing oil production.

It simply isn't realistic and the for - profit nature of CERA explains why.  The large energy companies have no significant discoveries hidden away, just declining fields, and they are increasingly being kicked out of country after country as oil producing nations nationalize fields so they need these projections from CERA to keep stringing investors on. 

Money Thoughts...

I believe in financial survival as well as preparing for physical survival. When oil roars ahead once more, to $200 or even $300 or more per barrel  I want to own some investments in energy, both renewable and petroleum.

My personal investment portfolio consists of approximately 10% oil services companies,  ETF symbol (PXJ), 40% renewable energy ( symbol PBD and PWND), 20% silver ETF (SLV), 10% gold ETF, (GLD)  and the remainder in a water resources  ETF, (PHO).  Energy ETF's and silver have been hard hit recently but I think now is the time to buy since the speculative bubble has burst.

Is there money to be made in the oil and gas industry because of peak oil?

The answer is yes but the ultimate winners will not be the major oil companies who are living on borrowed time. The big money will be made by the oilfield service companies like Schlumberger and Halliburton who are needed both by the majors and by national  oil companies in countries like Russia to provide highly specialized services.

Deep offshore drillers such as Noble and Transocean will also be winners since they are the only companies  with the equipment  to reach deep  offshore oil deposits.

Other winners will be the companies that make wind energy equipment including turbines, blades and towers.  Along those lines, a new ETF or exchange traded fund by Invesco Powershares, symbol (PWND) has just come on the market. It is made up only of companies that make wind energy equipment.

One of my favorite investment books and one that has guided much of my personal investing,  "Profit from the Peak" describes investment strategies that focus on a post peak world.

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